** WTSR20 WSSS 171800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC 00HR 24.4N 117.9E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 30.6N 122.6E 988HPA 16M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 180000 *** WARNING 180000. WARNING VALID 190000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985 HPA AT 24.4N 118.1E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 31.0N 123.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 180000UTC 24.4N 118.1E GOOD MOVE NE 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 190000UTC 31.0N 123.2E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.18 FOR STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180000 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 180100 UTC 00HR 24.6N 118.0E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NE 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 180145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS. AT 180000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC TWO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (29.8 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTSS20 VHHH 180145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS. AT 180000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC TWO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (29.8 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTPN31 PGTW 180300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 038 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 24.5N 118.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 118.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 26.9N 120.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 118.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TS 02W HAS UNDERGONE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 17 FEET.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 180200 UTC 00HR 24.8N 118.3E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NE 30KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 180300UTC 25.2N 118.7E FAIR MOVE NE 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 190300UTC 32.3N 124.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 180300 UTC 00HR 24.9N 118.5E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 31.6N 123.8E 998HPA 16M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 180400 UTC 00HR 25.3N 118.9E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NE 30KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 180445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS. AT 180300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (25.3 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC THREE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (30.4 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (124.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTSS20 VHHH 180445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS. AT 180300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (25.3 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC THREE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (30.4 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (124.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTNT80 EGRR 180532 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.05.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ARE ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180532 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 180500 UTC 00HR 25.7N 119.1E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NE 35KM/H=