** WTPQ20 BABJ 170600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 170600 UTC 00HR 21.2N 116.0E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 25.0N 118.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 30.6N 123.2E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 33.6N 129.8E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 170605 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 17-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 14.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 170600UTC 21.3N 116.1E GOOD MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 270NM FORECAST 24HF 180600UTC 25.9N 119.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 190600UTC 31.0N 124.2E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 170600 *** WARNING 170600. WARNING VALID 180600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 950 HPA AT 21.3N 116.1E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 25.9N 119.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 31.0N 124.2E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 170600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU ANALYSIS POSITION 170600UTC 21.3N 116.1E MOVEMENT NNE 9KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 171800UTC 23.3N 117.0E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 24HR POSITION 180600UTC 25.7N 118.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 36HR POSITION 181800UTC 28.8N 121.7E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT 48HR POSITION 190600UTC 30.9N 124.3E WITHIN 0NM PRES 995HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW SST AREA FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 42 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 170700 UTC 00HR 21.4N 116.2E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 170745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170600 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (25.8 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (123.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTSS20 VHHH 170745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170600 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (25.8 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (123.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTPN31 PGTW 170900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 035 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 21.3N 116.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 116.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.3N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 25.7N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 28.3N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 30.8N 123.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 116.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 170800 UTC 00HR 21.7N 116.3E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 170900 UTC 00HR 21.9N 116.4E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H P+24HR 26.6N 119.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 31.6N 124.6E 995HPA 20M/S P+72HR 34.0N 131.0E 998HPA 16M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 170900 *** WARNING 170900. WARNING VALID 180900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 950 HPA AT 22.0N 116.5E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 26.5N 119.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 170900UTC 22.0N 116.5E GOOD MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 270NM FORECAST 24HF 180900UTC 26.5N 119.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 190600UTC 31.0N 124.2E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 171000 UTC 00HR 22.0N 116.5E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 171045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170900 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (32.3 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTSS20 VHHH 171045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170900 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (32.3 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 171100 UTC 00HR 22.2N 116.6E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H=