** WTSR20 WSSS 161800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 162300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 162300 UTC 00HR 20.3N 115.5E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 170000 UTC 00HR 20.5N 115.6E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NNE 15KM/H P+24HR 24.3N 117.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 29.6N 122.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 33.6N 127.3E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 170000UTC 20.5N 115.6E GOOD MOVE N 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 270NM FORECAST 24HF 180000UTC 24.2N 117.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 190000UTC 29.6N 123.7E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 200000UTC 31.8N 128.9E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 170000 *** WARNING 170000. WARNING VALID 180000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 945 HPA AT 20.5N 115.6E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 24.2N 117.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 29.6N 123.7E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 31.8N 128.9E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 170100 UTC 00HR 20.6N 115.6E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 170145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170000 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (28.8 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTSS20 VHHH 170145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170000 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (28.8 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTPN31 PGTW 170300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 034 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 20.4N 115.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 115.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 22.3N 116.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 24.4N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 27.2N 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 29.9N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 115.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EROSION OF CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN STORM QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 170200 UTC 00HR 20.7N 115.6E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 170300 UTC 00HR 20.9N 115.7E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 170300UTC 20.8N 115.7E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 270NM FORECAST 24HF 180300UTC 24.9N 118.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 190000UTC 29.6N 123.7E 170NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 200000UTC 31.8N 128.9E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 170300 *** WARNING 170300. WARNING VALID 180300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 945 HPA AT 20.8N 115.7E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 24.9N 118.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 170400 UTC 00HR 21.0N 115.8E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NNE 15KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 170451 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.05.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170451 ** WTSS20 VHHH 170445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170300 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC TWO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (29.4 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTSS20 VHHH 170445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170300 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC TWO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (29.4 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 170500 UTC 00HR 21.1N 115.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NNE 15KM/H=