** WTPQ20 BABJ 161800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 161800 UTC 00HR 19.8N 115.1E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 161800 UTC 00HR 19.5N 115.1E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 23.6N 116.5E 970HPA 33M/S P+48HR 28.9N 119.3E 990HPA 20M/S P+72HR 33.7N 124.6E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 161800 *** WARNING 161800. WARNING VALID 171800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 945 HPA AT 19.5N 115.4E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 23.1N 117.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 28.7N 122.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 31.2N 127.7E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 161800UTC 19.5N 115.4E GOOD MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 270NM FORECAST 24HF 171800UTC 23.1N 117.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 181800UTC 28.7N 122.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 191800UTC 31.2N 127.7E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 161800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU ANALYSIS POSITION 161800UTC 19.5N 115.4E MOVEMENT NNE 7KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 170600UTC 21.5N 116.0E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 24HR POSITION 171800UTC 23.7N 117.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 36HR POSITION 180600UTC 26.8N 119.1E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 181800UTC 29.5N 122.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 995HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 161900 UTC 00HR 19.6N 115.2E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 161945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 161800 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (23.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC THREE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (30.1 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTSS20 VHHH 161945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 161800 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (23.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC THREE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (30.1 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 162000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 162000 UTC 00HR 19.7N 115.2E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 162100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 033 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 115.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 115.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.3N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.3N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 25.5N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 28.1N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 115.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 161825Z TRMM IMAGE REVEALS AN EROSION OF THE NORTHWEST REGION OF THE OUTERMOST BAND OF CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 162100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 162100 UTC 00HR 19.9N 115.3E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 24.1N 116.9E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 29.0N 121.0E 990HPA 20M/S P+72HR 33.9N 126.1E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 162100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 162100UTC 20.0N 115.6E GOOD MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 270NM FORECAST 24HF 172100UTC 23.6N 117.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 181800UTC 28.7N 122.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 191800UTC 31.2N 127.7E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 162100 *** WARNING 162100. WARNING VALID 172100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 945 HPA AT 20.0N 115.6E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 23.6N 117.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 162200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 162200 UTC 00HR 20.1N 115.5E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 162245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 162100 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (23.7 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC THREE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (31.0 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 192100 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ** WTSS20 VHHH 162245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 162100 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (23.7 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC THREE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (31.0 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 192100 UTC BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.