** WTIN20 DEMS 160615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND OVER THE PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 14.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 160600 UTC 00HR 17.8N 114.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 21.5N 115.3E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 25.7N 117.7E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 30.3N 121.7E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 160600 *** WARNING 160600. WARNING VALID 170600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 940 HPA AT 17.8N 114.9E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 21.6N 115.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 27.0N 118.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 31.7N 124.7E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 160600UTC 17.8N 114.9E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 170600UTC 21.6N 115.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 180600UTC 27.0N 118.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 190600UTC 31.7N 124.7E 290NM 70% MOVE ENE 18KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 160600 *** WARNING 160600. WARNING VALID 170600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 940 HPA AT 17.8N 114.9E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 21.6N 115.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 27.0N 118.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 31.7N 124.7E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 160600UTC 17.8N 114.9E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 170600UTC 21.6N 115.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 180600UTC 27.0N 118.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 190600UTC 31.7N 124.7E 290NM 70% MOVE ENE 18KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 160600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU ANALYSIS POSITION 160600UTC 17.8N 114.9E MOVEMENT N 9KT PRES/VMAX 940HPA 84KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 170600UTC 22.1N 115.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 180600UTC 27.2N 118.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT 60HR POSITION 181800UTC 30.5N 121.6E WITHIN 0NM PRES 995HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 160600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 160700 UTC 00HR 17.9N 114.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 160745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160600 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC THREE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (33.1 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 160745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160600 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC THREE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (33.1 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 160900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 031 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 114.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 114.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 19.5N 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.4N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.4N 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 25.9N 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 30.7N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 114.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 160800 UTC 00HR 18.1N 115.0E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 160900 UTC 00HR 18.3N 115.0E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 22.0N 115.6E 955HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 160900 UTC 00HR 18.3N 115.0E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 22.0N 115.6E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 26.2N 118.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 31.2N 123.2E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 160900UTC 18.3N 115.1E GOOD MOVE N 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 170900UTC 21.9N 115.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 180600UTC 27.0N 118.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 190600UTC 31.7N 124.7E 290NM 70% MOVE ENE 18KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 160900 *** WARNING 160900. WARNING VALID 170900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 945 HPA AT 18.3N 115.1E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 21.9N 115.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 161000 UTC 00HR 18.5N 115.0E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 161045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160900 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC THREE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (33.5 N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 161045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160900 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC THREE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (33.5 N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 161100 UTC 00HR 18.7N 115.0E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H=