** WTSR20 WSSS 151800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 160000UTC 16.9N 114.8E GOOD MOVE N 08KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 170000UTC 21.0N 114.9E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 180000UTC 26.4N 117.7E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 190000UTC 31.8N 123.3E 290NM 70% MOVE ENE 18KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 160000 *** WARNING 160000. WARNING VALID 170000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 930 HPA AT 16.9N 114.8E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 21.0N 114.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 26.4N 117.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 31.8N 123.3E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 160000 UTC 00HR 16.8N 114.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 20.6N 114.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 24.5N 117.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 28.4N 121.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 160000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 160000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 160145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160000 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 160145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160000 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 160300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 114.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 114.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.6N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 20.7N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 23.0N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 25.1N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 30.3N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 114.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 160300 UTC 00HR 17.2N 114.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 160300 *** WARNING 160300. WARNING VALID 170300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 930 HPA AT 17.3N 114.9E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 21.3N 115.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 160300UTC 17.3N 114.9E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 170300UTC 21.3N 115.1E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 180000UTC 26.4N 117.7E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 190000UTC 31.8N 123.3E 290NM 70% MOVE ENE 18KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 160400 UTC 00HR 17.4N 114.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160400 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 160400 UTC 00HR 17.4N 114.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 160445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160300 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 250 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 320 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (26.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (31.1 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 160445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160300 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 250 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 320 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (26.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (31.1 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 160505 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.05.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160505 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 160500 UTC 00HR 17.6N 114.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H=