** WTPQ20 RJTD 151800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 151800UTC 15.9N 115.0E GOOD MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 161800UTC 20.1N 114.7E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 171800UTC 24.9N 116.7E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 181800UTC 30.4N 121.5E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 151800 *** WARNING 151800. WARNING VALID 161800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 930 HPA AT 15.9N 115.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 20.1N 114.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 24.9N 116.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 30.4N 121.5E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 151800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU ANALYSIS POSITION 151800UTC 16.0N 115.1E MOVEMENT N 7KT PRES/VMAX 930HPA 89KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 161800UTC 19.8N 114.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 935HPA 86KT 48HR POSITION 171800UTC 24.5N 116.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 66KT 72HR POSITION 181800UTC 30.4N 121.6E WITHIN 0NM PRES 980HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 151800 UTC 00HR 16.2N 115.0E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 19.1N 114.7E 945HPA 45M/S P+48HR 22.8N 115.6E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 26.8N 118.3E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 151945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 151800 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 100 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (23.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (27.5 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 151945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 151800 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 100 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (23.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (27.5 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 152100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 115.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 115.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.0N 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 20.0N 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 22.0N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 24.1N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 29.0N 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 115.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 152100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 152100 UTC 00HR 16.5N 115.0E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 114.9E 950HPA 40M/S P+48HR 24.5N 116.4E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 29.3N 119.9E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 152100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 152100UTC 16.4N 114.9E GOOD MOVE N 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 162100UTC 20.8N 114.9E 90NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 171800UTC 24.9N 116.7E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 181800UTC 30.4N 121.5E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 152100 *** WARNING 152100. WARNING VALID 162100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 930 HPA AT 16.4N 114.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 20.8N 114.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 152245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 152100 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 100 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (25.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC TWO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (29.7 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 152245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 152100 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 100 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (25.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC TWO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (29.7 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.