** WTIN20 DEMS 150630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 16.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 150600 *** WARNING 150600. WARNING VALID 160600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 930 HPA AT 14.8N 115.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 18.2N 114.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 915 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 21.9N 114.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 26.5N 117.9E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 150600UTC 14.8N 115.3E GOOD MOVE N 06KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 160600UTC 18.2N 114.4E 90NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 170600UTC 21.9N 114.9E 150NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 180600UTC 26.5N 117.9E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 150600 UTC 00HR 14.7N 115.2E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 17.3N 114.5E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 20.8N 114.6E 945HPA 45M/S P+72HR 23.9N 115.2E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 150600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU ANALYSIS POSITION 150600UTC 14.8N 115.3E MOVEMENT N 6KT PRES/VMAX 930HPA 89KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 160600UTC 17.8N 114.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 920HPA 101KT 48HR POSITION 170600UTC 21.5N 114.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 86KT 72HR POSITION 180600UTC 25.9N 116.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 7.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 150745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 150600 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 200 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (25.0 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 150745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 150600 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 200 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (25.0 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 150900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 115.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 115.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.2N 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.7N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 19.3N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 20.9N 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 24.2N 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 27.9N 116.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 115.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 150900 UTC 00HR 15.0N 115.2E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 18.0N 114.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 21.3N 114.6E 945HPA 45M/S P+72HR 24.6N 115.9E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTPH20 RPMM 141800 *** AAXX TYPHOON WARNING 26 AT 0600 15 MAY TYPHOON (CHANCHU) (0601) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 160600 ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO EAST UNLESS RECURVATURE OCCURS THIS IS FINAL WARNING FROM WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 150900UTC 15.0N 115.2E GOOD MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 160900UTC 18.6N 114.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 170600UTC 21.9N 114.9E 150NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 180600UTC 26.5N 117.9E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 150900 *** WARNING 150900. WARNING VALID 160900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 930 HPA AT 15.0N 115.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 18.6N 114.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 151045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 150900 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 250 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 100 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (116.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 151045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 150900 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 250 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 100 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (116.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.