** WTSR20 WSSS 141800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 150000 *** WARNING 150000. WARNING VALID 160000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 935 HPA AT 14.1N 115.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 16.9N 114.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 915 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 20.5N 114.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 24.0N 116.5E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 150000UTC 14.1N 115.4E GOOD MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 280NM FORECAST 24HF 160000UTC 16.9N 114.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 170000UTC 20.5N 114.9E 150NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 180000UTC 24.0N 116.5E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC 00HR 14.0N 115.2E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 114.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 19.2N 114.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 22.5N 114.1E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 150145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 150000 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (117.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 150145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 150000 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (117.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 150300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 115.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 115.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.1N 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.5N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.0N 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.8N 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 23.6N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 27.5N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 115.2E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 150300UTC 14.4N 115.4E GOOD MOVE N 06KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 100NM 30KT 280NM FORECAST 24HF 160300UTC 17.7N 114.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 170000UTC 20.5N 114.9E 150NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 180000UTC 24.0N 116.5E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 150300 *** WARNING 150300. WARNING VALID 160300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 930 HPA AT 14.4N 115.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 17.7N 114.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 915 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 150000 *** T T T WARNING 25 AT 0000 15 MAY TYPHOON (CHANCHU)(0601) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN EIGHT ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 160000 ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 170000 ONE EIGHT POINT NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 150459 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.05.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150459 ** WTSS20 VHHH 150445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 150300 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (14.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 330 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 390 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 150445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 150300 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (14.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 330 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 390 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.