** WTPQ20 RJTD 140900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 140900UTC 14.0N 116.3E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 150900UTC 15.1N 114.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 160600UTC 18.0N 114.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 170600UTC 21.5N 114.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 140900 *** WARNING 140900. WARNING VALID 150900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 960 HPA AT 14.0N 116.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 15.1N 114.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 140600 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 22 AT 0600 14 MAY TYPHOON (CHANCHU)(0601) ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 150600 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO EAST AND AT 160600 ONE NINE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTSS20 VHHH 141045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140900 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 141045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140900 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTSR20 WSSS 140600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 141200 *** WARNING 141200. WARNING VALID 151200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 950 HPA AT 13.9N 116.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 15.4N 114.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 18.9N 114.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 22.2N 114.9E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 141200UTC 13.9N 116.0E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 151200UTC 15.4N 114.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 161200UTC 18.9N 114.3E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 171200UTC 22.2N 114.9E 240NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 141200 UTC 00HR 14.0N 115.9E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 540KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 114.2E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 18.8N 113.8E 945HPA 50M/S P+72HR 21.9N 114.0E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 141345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 141200 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 141345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 141200 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 141500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 115.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 115.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.2N 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.4N 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.7N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.4N 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 21.5N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 24.2N 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 26.6N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 115.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 141500 *** WARNING 141500. WARNING VALID 151500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 950 HPA AT 13.9N 115.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 15.6N 114.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 141500UTC 13.9N 115.6E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 151500UTC 15.6N 114.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 161200UTC 18.9N 114.3E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 171200UTC 22.2N 114.9E 240NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT =