** WTPQ20 BABJ 140600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 140600 UTC 00HR 14.0N 116.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 15.6N 114.7E 955HPA 45M/S P+48HR 18.2N 114.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 20.8N 113.8E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 140650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RNS ALONG 16.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 140600UTC 14.0N 116.6E FAIR MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 150600UTC 15.0N 114.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 160600UTC 18.0N 114.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 170600UTC 21.5N 114.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 140600 *** WARNING 140600. WARNING VALID 150600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 960 HPA AT 14.0N 116.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 15.0N 114.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 18.0N 114.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 21.5N 114.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 140600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU ANALYSIS POSITION 140600UTC 14.0N 116.6E MOVEMENT W 9KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 150600UTC 15.2N 114.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT 48HR POSITION 160600UTC 18.1N 113.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT 72HR POSITION 170600UTC 21.2N 114.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 140745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140600 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 140745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140600 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 140900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 116.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 116.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.2N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.1N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.5N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.0N 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.1N 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 24.2N 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 26.7N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 116.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 140300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 117.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 117.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 13.6N 116.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.1N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.5N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.0N 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 20.2N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 23.1N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 26.1N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 117.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 140445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140300 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (117.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 140445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140300 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (117.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 140600 UTC 00HR 14.0N 116.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 15.6N 114.7E 955HPA 45M/S P+48HR 18.2N 114.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 20.8N 113.8E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 140650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RNS ALONG 16.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 140600UTC 14.0N 116.6E FAIR MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 150600UTC 15.0N 114.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 160600UTC 18.0N 114.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 170600UTC 21.5N 114.4E 220NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 140600 *** WARNING 140600. WARNING VALID 150600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 960 HPA AT 14.0N 116.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 15.0N 114.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 18.0N 114.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 21.5N 114.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 140600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU ANALYSIS POSITION 140600UTC 14.0N 116.6E MOVEMENT W 9KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 150600UTC 15.2N 114.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT 48HR POSITION 160600UTC 18.1N 113.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT 72HR POSITION 170600UTC 21.2N 114.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 140745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140600 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 140745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140600 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 140900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 116.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 116.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.2N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.1N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.5N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.0N 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.1N 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 24.2N 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 26.7N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 116.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//