** WTPQ20 RJTD 131800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 131800UTC 13.8N 118.3E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 350NM WEST 280NM EAST FORECAST 24HF 141800UTC 14.4N 115.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 151800UTC 16.4N 114.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 161800UTC 19.1N 114.2E 220NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 131800 *** WARNING 131800. WARNING VALID 141800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA AT 13.8N 118.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 280 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 14.4N 115.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 16.4N 114.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 19.1N 114.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 131800 UTC 00HR 14.0N 118.2E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 15.0N 115.2E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 17.0N 114.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 20.2N 113.9E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 131945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131800 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131800 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 132100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 118.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 118.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.1N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.3N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.1N 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.7N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 19.7N 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.0N 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 26.4N 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 117.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 132100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 132100UTC 13.8N 117.7E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 350NM WEST 280NM EAST FORECAST 24HF 142100UTC 14.4N 115.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 151800UTC 16.4N 114.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 161800UTC 19.1N 114.2E 220NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 132100 *** WARNING 132100. WARNING VALID 142100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 970 HPA AT 13.8N 117.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 280 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 14.4N 115.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 131800 *** T T T STORM WARNING 20 AT 1800 13 MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU)(0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONEFOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METER PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 141800 ONE FOUR POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 151800 ONE FIVE P0INT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH20 RPMM 131800 *** T T T STORM WARNING 20 AT 1800 13 MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU)(0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONEFOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METER PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 141800 ONE FOUR POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 151800 ONE FIVE P0INT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTSS20 VHHH 132245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 132100 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.