** WTSR20 WSSS 130600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 131200UTC 14.0N 119.0E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 280NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 141200UTC 14.4N 115.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 151200UTC 15.6N 114.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 161200UTC 18.1N 113.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 131200 *** WARNING 131200. WARNING VALID 141200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 975 HPA AT 14.0N 119.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 14.4N 115.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 15.6N 114.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 18.1N 113.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 14.0N 119.0E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 14.8N 115.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 16.3N 114.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 19.0N 113.6E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 14.0N 119.0E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 14.8N 115.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 16.3N 114.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 19.4N 113.6E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 131345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131200 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131200 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 131500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 118.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 118.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.3N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.6N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.0N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.1N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.3N 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 22.5N 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 25.4N 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 118.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST- WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 131200 *** T T T STORM WARNING 19 AT 1200 13 MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU)(0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 141200 ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE EAST AT 151200 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE EAST AND AT 161200 ONE NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 131500UTC 14.0N 118.8E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 280NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 141500UTC 14.4N 115.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 151200UTC 15.6N 114.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 161200UTC 18.1N 113.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 131500 *** WARNING 131500. WARNING VALID 141500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 975 HPA AT 14.0N 118.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 14.4N 115.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 131645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131500 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131500 UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.