** WTIN20 DEMS 130635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND, PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RNS ALONG 17.5 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 130600UTC 13.9N 119.3E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 280NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 140600UTC 14.4N 115.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 150600UTC 14.6N 114.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 160600UTC 17.3N 113.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 130600 *** WARNING 130600. WARNING VALID 140600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 975 HPA AT 13.9N 119.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 14.4N 115.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 14.6N 114.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 17.3N 113.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC 00HR 14.0N 119.3E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 15.0N 115.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 16.3N 114.2E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 18.8N 113.5E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 130600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU ANALYSIS POSITION 130600UTC 13.9N 119.3E MOVEMENT WNW 12KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 140600UTC 14.8N 116.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 150600UTC 16.0N 114.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 160600UTC 18.5N 113.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (13.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (13.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPH20 RPMM 130600 *** T T T STORM WARNING 18 AT 0600 13 MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU)(0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METER PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITINS AT 140600 ONE FIVE NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO EAST AT 150600 ONE EIGHT POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PGTW 130900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 13.8N 119.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 119.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.3N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.7N 116.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.0N 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.9N 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.3N 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.5N 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 24.3N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 119.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST- WARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 130900 *** WARNING 130900. WARNING VALID 140900. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 975 HPA AT 14.0N 119.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 14.4N 115.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 130900UTC 14.0N 119.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 280NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 140900UTC 14.4N 115.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 150600UTC 14.6N 114.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 160600UTC 17.3N 113.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 131045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TYPHOON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS. AT 130900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TYPHOON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS. AT 130900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.