** WTSR20 WSSS 121800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 13.6N 120.4E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 14.6N 117.1E 965HPA 35M/S P+48HR 15.7N 114.7E 955HPA 40M/S P+72HR 17.5N 113.5E 945HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 130000 *** WARNING 130000. WARNING VALID 140000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 980 HPA AT 13.3N 120.6E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 14.1N 117.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 14.5N 114.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 17.0N 113.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 130000UTC 13.3N 120.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 240NM SOUTH 220NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 140000UTC 14.1N 117.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 150000UTC 14.5N 114.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 160000UTC 17.0N 113.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 130300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 120.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 120.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 13.8N 119.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.2N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.5N 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.0N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.2N 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.9N 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 22.5N 113.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 120.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 130300 *** WARNING 130300. WARNING VALID 140300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 980 HPA AT 13.8N 119.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 14.4N 116.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 130300UTC 13.8N 119.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 280NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 140300UTC 14.4N 116.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 150000UTC 14.5N 114.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 160000UTC 17.0N 113.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 130000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 17 AT 0000 13 MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU) (0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METER PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO METER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 140000 ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX EAST AT 150000 ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTSS20 VHHH 130445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.