** WTJP21 RJTD 121800 *** WARNING 121800. WARNING VALID 131800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 980 HPA AT 12.9N 121.2E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 14.1N 117.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 14.3N 114.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 16.8N 113.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 121800UTC 12.9N 121.2E FAIR MOVE W 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 131800UTC 14.1N 117.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 141800UTC 14.3N 114.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 151800UTC 16.8N 113.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 121800 UTC 00HR 13.1N 121.2E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 14.2N 118.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 15.5N 115.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 17.0N 114.0E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 121945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 122100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 12.7N 121.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 121.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 12.9N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 13.2N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 13.5N 116.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.2N 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.0N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.6N 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 21.2N 113.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 120.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS BECOME CONFUSED AS TY 02W HAS MOVED OVER MINDORO, PHILIPPINES, IT IS EXPECTED TO RECONSOLIDATE IN THE WARMER WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 75 KNOTS AND 90 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 122100 *** WARNING 122100. WARNING VALID 132100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 980 HPA AT 13.0N 120.9E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 14.2N 117.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 122100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 122100UTC 13.0N 120.9E FAIR MOVE W 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 132100UTC 14.2N 117.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 141800UTC 14.3N 114.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 151800UTC 16.8N 113.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 121800 *** TTT STORM WARNING 16 AT 1800 12 MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM(CHANCHU) (0601A) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131800 ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST AT 141800 ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 121800 *** TTT STORM WARNING 16 AT 1800 12 MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU 0601 WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.0'N, 121.1'E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250 KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 26MPS NEAR CENTERS 13MPS WITIHN 250 KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131800 14.0'N 118.0'E AT 141800 15.0'N 114.9'E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTSS20 VHHH 122245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 122100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (14.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 122245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 122100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (14.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.