** WTSR20 WSSS 120600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 121200 *** WARNING 121200. WARNING VALID 131200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 980 HPA AT 13.0N 121.8E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 14.3N 118.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 14.8N 115.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 16.5N 113.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 121200UTC 13.0N 121.8E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 131200UTC 14.3N 118.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 141200UTC 14.8N 115.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 151200UTC 16.5N 113.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC 00HR 13.1N 121.9E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 14.6N 118.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 15.5N 114.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 17.0N 114.0E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 121345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 121500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 121.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 121.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 13.3N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 13.6N 118.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.0N 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.4N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.9N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.9N 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 20.5N 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 121.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE REMAINED ORGANIZED AND RADIAL OUTFLOW INCREASED AS THE STORM TRACKED THROUGH THE SIBUYAN SEA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING EYE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 75 KNOTS AND 90 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 121200 *** TTT STORM WARNING 15 AT 1200 12 MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU 0601 WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.0'N, 121.7'E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250 KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 26MPS NEAR CENTERS FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131200 14.2'N 117.8'E AT 141200 15.7'N 113.9'E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTJP31 RJTD 121500 *** WARNING 121500. WARNING VALID 131500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 980 HPA AT 13.0N 121.5E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 14.5N 118.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 121500UTC 13.0N 121.5E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 131500UTC 14.5N 118.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 141200UTC 14.8N 115.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 151200UTC 16.5N 113.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 121200 *** TTT STORM WARNING 15 AT 1200 12 MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU) (0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131200 ONE FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST AT 141200 ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 121645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.