** WTJP21 RJTD 120600 *** WARNING 120600. WARNING VALID 130600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 985 HPA AT 13.0N 122.6E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 14.6N 118.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 16.1N 115.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 17.4N 113.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 120600UTC 13.0N 122.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 130600UTC 14.6N 118.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 140600UTC 16.1N 115.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 150600UTC 17.4N 113.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC 00HR 13.0N 122.6E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 14.5N 118.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 15.5N 115.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 16.6N 113.5E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 120630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (,) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RNS ALONG 17.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) --------- ** WTKO20 RKSL 120600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU ANALYSIS POSITION 120600UTC 13.0N 122.6E MOVEMENT WNW 10KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 130600UTC 14.6N 118.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 48HR POSITION 140600UTC 15.6N 115.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 150600UTC 17.3N 113.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 120745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (118.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 120900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 122.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 122.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.5N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.2N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.6N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.8N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.3N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.2N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 19.6N 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 122.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE REMAINS ORGANIZED AND RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED AS THE STORM TRACKS THROUGH THE SIBUYAN SEA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 120900UTC 13.0N 122.1E FAIR MOVE W 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 130900UTC 14.8N 117.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 140600UTC 16.1N 115.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 150600UTC 17.4N 113.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 120900 *** WARNING 120900. WARNING VALID 130900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 985 HPA AT 13.0N 122.1E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 14.8N 117.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 120600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 14 AT 0600 12 MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU) (0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 130600 ONE FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST AT 140600 ONE SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 121045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (14.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.