** WTSR20 WSSS 111800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 120000 UTC 00HR 12.7N 123.7E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 14.4N 119.3E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 15.6N 115.9E 965HPA 40M/S P+72HR 16.2N 113.9E 955HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 120000 *** WARNING 120000. WARNING VALID 130000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 985 HPA AT 12.6N 123.6E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 14.2N 119.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 15.4N 115.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 16.6N 112.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 120000UTC 12.6N 123.6E FAIR MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 130000UTC 14.2N 119.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 140000UTC 15.4N 115.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 150000UTC 16.6N 112.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 VHHH 112245 CCA *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 112100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (12.6 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 122100 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (114.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST . 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 120300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 12.8N 123.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 123.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 13.4N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.1N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.8N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.2N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.8N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.2N 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.1N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 123.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z. // ** WTPQ20 VHHH 120145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (12.7 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 200 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPH20 RPMM 120000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 13 AT 0000 12 MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU)(0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 130000 ONE FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR EAST AT 140000 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 150000 TWO ZERO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 120300 *** WARNING 120300. WARNING VALID 130300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 985 HPA AT 12.7N 123.3E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 14.4N 118.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 120300UTC 12.7N 123.3E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 130300UTC 14.4N 118.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 140000UTC 15.4N 115.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 150000UTC 16.6N 112.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPH RPLL 111800 *** TTT STORM WARNING 12 AT 1800 11MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU 0601 WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTERS ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECONDS WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 121800 ONE FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX EAST AT 131800 ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO EAST AND AT 141800 TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM ARE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH RPLL 111200Z *** TTT STORM WARNING 11 AT 1200 AA MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU) (0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 12.1N 125.9E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 31MPS NEAR THE CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 121200 14.4N 121.8E AT 131200 16.2N 117.5E AND AT 141200 18.8N 113.6E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SENT THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 120445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (12.7 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTPH RPLL 120000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 13 AT 0000 12 MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU)(0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 130000 ONE FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR EAST AT 140000 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE SIX POINT SEVEN AND AT 150000 TWO ZERO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH RPLL 111200Z *** TTT STORM WARNING 11 AT 1200 AA MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU) (0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 12.1N 125.9E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO VE