** WTJP21 RJTD 110600 *** WARNING 110600. WARNING VALID 120600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 980 HPA AT 11.5N 127.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 13.4N 121.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 15.1N 116.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 15.7N 114.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 110600UTC 11.5N 127.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 120600UTC 13.4N 121.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 130600UTC 15.1N 116.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 140600UTC 15.7N 114.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC 00HR 11.5N 126.8E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 13.2N 122.4E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 15.0N 118.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 15.3N 115.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 110600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU ANALYSIS POSITION 110600UTC 11.5N 127.0E MOVEMENT WNW 12KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 120600UTC 13.4N 122.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 48HR POSITION 130600UTC 15.1N 118.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 72HR POSITION 140600UTC 16.2N 116.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTIN20 DEMS 110705 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND, PARTS OF NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT.15.0 DEG.NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ????/ ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 110900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 11.4N 126.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 126.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 12.2N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 12.9N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.7N 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.4N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.4N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 16.6N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.3N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 126.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 110900UTC 11.7N 126.3E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 120900UTC 13.7N 120.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 130600UTC 15.1N 116.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 140600UTC 15.7N 114.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 110900 *** WARNING 110900. WARNING VALID 120900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 980 HPA AT 11.7N 126.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 13.7N 120.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 110600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 10 AT 0600 11 MAY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 120600 ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE EAST AT 130600 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 140600 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA=