** WTPQ20 BABJ 101800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 101800 UTC 00HR 10.3N 128.9E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 12.2N 125.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 13.7N 120.1E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 15.0N 116.1E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 101800 *** WARNING 101800. WARNING VALID 111800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 985 HPA AT 10.3N 129.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 12.8N 124.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 14.7N 119.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 15.6N 117.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 101800UTC 10.3N 129.0E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 111800UTC 12.8N 124.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 121800UTC 14.7N 119.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 131800UTC 15.6N 117.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 101800 UTC 00HR 10.3N 128.9E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 12.2N 125.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 13.7N 120.1E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 15.0N 116.1E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 102100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 009 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 10.3N 128.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 128.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 11.1N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 12.0N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 12.7N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.1N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 13.8N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.5N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.2N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 128.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 22 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. // ** WTJP31 RJTD 102100 *** WARNING 102100. WARNING VALID 112100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 985 HPA AT 10.5N 128.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 13.0N 124.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 102100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 102100UTC 10.5N 128.7E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 112100UTC 13.0N 124.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 121800UTC 14.7N 119.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 131800UTC 15.6N 117.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPH RPLL 101800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 08 AT 1200 10 MAY TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU)(0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111800 ONE ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT NINE EAST AT 121800O ONE TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 131800 ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH20 RPMM 101800 *** T T T GALE WARNING 08 AT 1800 10 MAY TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU)(0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111800 ONE ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT NINE EAST AT 121800 ONE TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 131800 ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT SIC EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN SORM ARE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA=