** WTSR20 WSSS 100600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 101200 UTC 00HR 9.9N 129.5E 985HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 11.4N 126.1E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 13.2N 122.4E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 14.8N 118.6E 985HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 101200 *** WARNING 101200. WARNING VALID 111200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 09.8N 129.4E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 12.4N 125.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 14.4N 118.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 15.0N 115.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 101200UTC 09.8N 129.4E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 111200UTC 12.4N 125.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 121200UTC 14.4N 118.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 131200UTC 15.0N 115.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 101500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 9.8N 129.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 129.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 10.8N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 11.7N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 12.6N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 13.3N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.5N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.4N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.2N 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 128.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 101200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 07 AT 1200 10 MAY TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU)(0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALSM AXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111200 ONE ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT TWO EAST AT 121200O ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE EAST AND AT 131200 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 101500UTC 10.0N 129.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 111500UTC 12.9N 124.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 121200UTC 14.4N 118.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 131200UTC 15.0N 115.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 101500 *** WARNING 101500. WARNING VALID 111500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 985 HPA AT 10.0N 129.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 12.9N 124.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 101200 *** T T T GALE WARNING 07 AT 1200 10 MAY TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU)(0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111200 ONE ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT TWO EAST AT 121200 ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE EAST AND AT 131200 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA=