** WTIN20 DEMS 100605 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 10-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, PARTS OF NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ANDAMAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LIES ALONG LAT.15.0 DEG.NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 100600 UTC 00HR 9.8N 129.9E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 200KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 11.2N 126.8E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 13.0N 123.4E 965HPA 38M/S P+72HR 15.3N 121.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 100600UTC 09.5N 129.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 110600UTC 11.4N 126.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 120600UTC 13.0N 122.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 130600UTC 14.1N 117.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 100600 *** WARNING 100600. WARNING VALID 110600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 990 HPA AT 09.5N 129.8E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 11.4N 126.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 13.0N 122.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 14.1N 117.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 100600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0601 CHANCHU ANALYSIS POSITION 100600UTC 9.6N 129.9E MOVEMENT WNW 11KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 110600UTC 11.1N 126.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 120600UTC 13.3N 123.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 130600UTC 15.4N 119.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 100900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 9.6N 129.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 129.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 10.3N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 11.4N 126.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 12.6N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 13.6N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.8N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.4N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.2N 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 129.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 100923 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (02W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7 800 PM GUAM LST WED MAY 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU SLOWLY INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 129.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 395 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR AND KAYANGEL 370 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL. TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 129.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 100900UTC 09.8N 129.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 110900UTC 11.7N 125.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 120600UTC 13.0N 122.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 130600UTC 14.1N 117.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 100900 *** WARNING 100900. WARNING VALID 110900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 990 HPA AT 09.8N 129.5E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 11.7N 125.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 100600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 06 AT 0600 10 MAY TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU) {0601} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ZERO NINE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 110600 ONE ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SEVEN EAST AT 120600 ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO EAST AND AT 130600 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA =