** WTSR20 WSSS 091800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 100000 *** WARNING 100000. WARNING VALID 110000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 996 HPA AT 09.0N 130.8E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 10.5N 128.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 12.1N 124.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 13.7N 120.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 100000UTC 09.0N 130.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 110000UTC 10.5N 128.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 120000UTC 12.1N 124.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 130000UTC 13.7N 120.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC 00HR 9.0N 131.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 10.1N 128.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 11.6N 125.4E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 13.0N 122.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 100300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 9.1N 130.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 130.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 10.0N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 11.0N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 12.1N 126.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 13.3N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.2N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.4N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.0N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 130.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 100300UTC 09.3N 130.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 110300UTC 10.7N 127.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 120000UTC 12.1N 124.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 130000UTC 13.7N 120.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 100300 *** WARNING 100300. WARNING VALID 110300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 992 HPA AT 09.3N 130.1E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 10.7N 127.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 100352 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (02W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6 200 PM GUAM LST WED MAY 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU SLOWLY INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 305 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR AND KAYANGEL 300 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL. TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...9.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 130.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ AHN