** WTPQ20 BABJ 091800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 091800 UTC 00HR 8.8N 131.6E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 80KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 9.8N 128.6E 988HPA 25M/S P+48HR 11.0N 126.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 12.5N 123.6E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 091800UTC 08.7N 131.5E POOR MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 101800UTC 09.8N 128.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 111800UTC 11.3N 125.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 121800UTC 13.0N 120.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 091800 *** WARNING 091800. WARNING VALID 101800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0601 CHANCHU (0601) 1000 HPA AT 08.7N 131.5E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 09.8N 128.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 11.3N 125.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 13.0N 120.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 092100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 8.6N 131.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 131.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 9.2N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 10.0N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 10.9N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 11.8N 125.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.4N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.5N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.3N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 131.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 091800 *** T T T GALE WARNING 04 AT 1800 MAY TROPICAL STORM (CHANCHU)(0601) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101800 ZERO NINE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT TWO EAST 111800 ONE ZERO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EAST AND AT 121800 ONE ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 092135 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU (02W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5 800 AM GUAM LST WED MAY 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU SLOWLY INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 245 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR AND 250 MILES WEST OF KAYANGEL. TROPICAL STORM CHANCHU IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. CHANCHU IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 131.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ20 RJTD 092100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0601 CHANCHU (0601) ANALYSIS PSTN 092100UTC 08.8N 131.2E POOR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 102100UTC 10.0N 128.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 111800UTC 11.3N 125.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 121800UTC 13.0N 120.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT =