** WTIN20 DEMS 090650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-05-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LIES ALONG LAT. 15.0 DEG.NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 090600UTC 08.0N 132.6E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 100600UTC 08.2N 131.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 08.0N 132.6E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090600 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 090900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 8.1N 132.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 8.1N 132.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 8.2N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 8.7N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 9.5N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 10.4N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 11.7N 125.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 12.9N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.1N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 8.1N 132.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 090941 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 02W ADVISORY NUMBER 3 800 PM GUAM LST TUE MAY 9 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 02W MOVING AWAY FROM THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 02W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 132.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR AND 171 MILES WEST OF KAYANGEL. TROPICAL STORM 02W IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM 02W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 02W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...8.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 132.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPH20 RPMM 090600 *** T T T WARNING 02 AT 0600 09 MAY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT TWO EAST MOVING WEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 100600 ZERO NINE POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ZERO EAST AT 110600 ONE ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 120600 ONE FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 090900UTC 08.0N 132.3E POOR MOVE W 08KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 100900UTC 08.2N 130.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT =