** WTIN20 DEMS 080940 ***


            TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

    ------------------------

DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 08-05-2006 (.) 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF 

BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600

UTC (.)

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA(.)



RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LIES ALONG LAT. 14.0 DEG.NORTH OVER 

INDIAN REGION (.)




** WTPN21 PGTW 081100 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/081051ZMAY2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 137.1E TO 9.7N 130.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 080600Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 136.5E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
136.3E HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 9.0N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BANDS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS OF AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 080617Z AMSU-B PASS REVEALS A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC BETWEEN PALAU AND YAP, AND 24-HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS OF NEARLY TWO MILLIBARS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON PALAU.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS DUE TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING,
AN ENHANCED WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. GIVEN ADDITIONAL CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091100Z.//