** WTIO31 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MALA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 94.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 94.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 19.6N 95.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.0N 97.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 94.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (MALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC02B IS JUST OFFSHORE OF GWA, MYANMAR. TC02B WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z.// ** WTXS21 PGTW 290700 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION/290651ZAPR06// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280821ZAPR06// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280830). THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 90.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN ELONGATED CONVERGENT BAND EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC ALONG THE CONVERGENT BAND WHILE A SEPERATE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC IS WANING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICALWIND SHEAR WITHIN THE SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 280830) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSOLIDATING AND SUSTAINED CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.// ** WTIN01 DEMS 290900 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2006 04 29 0900 UTC 29 APRIL 2006 PART-I :-STORM WARNING:-THE VERY SEVERE CLOCONIC STORM (MALA) OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY MOVED IN A NE-LY DIRECTION AND NOW LIES CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 29TH WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT.17.0 DEG.N/LONG.94.0 DEG.E (.) THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND CROSS ARAKAN COAST BY AFTERNOON OF TODAY (.) PART-II:- WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)(.) PART-III:- FORECAST ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N WEST OF 80 DEG E. I)WIND:-EAST OF 65 DEG NW/W 15/20 KTS WEST OF 65 DEG MAINLY NE 15/20 II)WEATHER:- ISOLATED RA/TS TO THE EAST OF 70 DEG. E (.)REST AREA WEATHER FAIR (.) III)VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE (.) ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF 10 DEG.N. I)WIND:-ANTICYCLONIC 10/15 KTS AROUND THE AXIS OF 17 DEG. NORTH(.) II)WEATHER:- FAIR (.) III)VISIBILITY:- GOOD (.) IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE (.) BOB-A3-BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N.EAST OF 80 DEG E. I)WIND:MAINLY SW-LY 25/30 KTS (.) II)WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RA/TS (.) IV)STATE OF SEA:-ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH(.) BOB-A4-BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF 10 DEG.N. I)WIND:-W/SW 40/45 KTS BEC CYCLONIC AROUND THE CENTRE OF LAT 17.0 DEG N/LONG 94.0 DEG E WITH WIND SPEED 90/95 WITHIN THE RADIUS OF 400 KMS FROM THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM(.) II)WEATHER:- FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS TO THE EAST OF 90 DEG. EAST(.) REST AREA WEATHER FAIR (.) III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN(.) IV)STATE OF SEA:-PHENOMINAL(.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT