** WTIN20 DEMS 280000 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RSMC NEW DELHI (NWP) F/C 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -MALA- WARNING NR 05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL INITIAL POSITION 271800Z NEAR 13.5N 90.8E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 65 KTS MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 030 DEG AT 6 KTS FORECAST 06 HRS VALID AT: 280600 14.8N 91.4E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 70 KTS 12 HRS VALID AT: 281200 15.1N 91.8E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 70 KTS 18 HRS VALID AT: 281800 15.9N 92.2E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 75 KTS 24 HRS VALID AT: 290000 17.0N 92.6E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 75 KTS 30 HRS VALID AT: 290600 18.1N 92.6E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 80 KTS 36 HRS VALID AT: 291200 19.2N 93.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 80 KTS 42 HRS VALID AT: 291800 20.7N 93.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS 48 HRS VALID AT: 300000 22.1N 93.7E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS NEXT WARNING AT 281800 ** WTXS21 PGTW 280830 *** ALERT ATCF MIL 91X XXX 060428060000 2006042806 -9.5 91.7 -10.6 86.1 125 -9.7 91.0 280830 0604280821 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 280821Z APR 06// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270821Z APR 06// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 270830)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5S 91.7E TO 10.6S 86.1E WITH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 91.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 290830Z. // SH, 91, 2006042418, , BEST, 0, 93S, 969E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042500, , BEST, 0, 91S, 967E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042506, , BEST, 0, 89S, 965E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042512, , BEST, 0, 88S, 962E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042518, , BEST, 0, 87S, 960E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042600, , BEST, 0, 86S, 958E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042606, , BEST, 0, 85S, 956E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042612, , BEST, 0, 84S, 953E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042618, , BEST, 0, 84S, 948E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042700, , BEST, 0, 86S, 940E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 91, 2006042706, , BEST, 0, 94S, 932E, 30, 1000, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 210, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 91, 2006042712, , BEST, 0, 97S, 924E, 30, 1000, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 205, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 91, 2006042718, , BEST, 0, 99S, 918E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 91, 2006042800, , BEST, 0, 98S, 913E, 30, 1000, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 91, 2006042806, , BEST, 0, 97S, 910E, 30, 1000, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTIO31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MALA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 92.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 92.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.9N 93.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 034 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 034 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 034 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 034 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 058 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 058 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 057 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 057 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 112 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 109 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 108 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 111 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 17.1N 93.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 037 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 037 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 036 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 036 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 062 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 062 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 114 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 116 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 19.1N 95.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.0N 97.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 92.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (MALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS TC 02B HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED SPEED TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST. THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS CONTINUE TO VENT THE SYSTEM ALLOWING TC 02B TO INCREASE INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND AROUND TAU 24, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTIN01 DEMS 280900 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2006 04 28 0900 UTC 28 APRIL 2006 PART-I :-STORM WARNING:- THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY AND ADJ. SOUTHEAST BAY NOW LIES CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 28TH WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT.14.5 DEG N/LONG.91.5 DEG E ABOUT 350 KMS NNW OF PORT BLAIR (.)THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHNORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS ARAKAN COAST BETWEEN SANDOWAY AND KYAUKPYU (.) PART-II:- WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)(.) PART-III:- FORECAST ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N WEST OF 80 DEG E. I)WIND:- EAST OF 65 DEG:- NW/W 15/20 KTS WEST OF 67 DEG:- MAINLY NE 15/20 II)WEATHER:- FAIR(.) III)VISIBILITY:- GOOD (.) IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE (.) ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF 10 DEG.N. I)WIND:-N/NE 10/15 KTS BEC ANTICYCLONIC TO THE WEST OF 65 DEG E(.) II)WEATHER:- FAIR (.) III)VISIBILITY:- GOOD (.) IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE (.) BOB-A3-BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N.EAST OF 80 DEG E. I)WIND:-MAINLY SW-LY 25/30 KTS(.) II)WEATHER:- SCATTERED RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RA/TS (.) IV)STATE OF SEA:- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH(.) BOB-A4-BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF 10 DEG.N. I)WIND:-W/SW 40/45 KTS BEC CYCLONIC AROUND THE CENTRE OF LAT 15.0 DEG N/LONG 92.0 DEG E WITH WIND SPEED 90/95 WITHIN THE RADIUS OF 400 KMS FROM THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM(.) II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN(.) IV)STATE OF SEA:- PHENOMINAL(.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT