** WTIO31 PGTW 270900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MALA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 12.7N 89.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 89.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 13.4N 89.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 14.2N 90.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.0N 91.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.0N 91.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 89.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (MALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SURGE OF RADIAL OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE. TC 02B IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ITS LOCATION UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER MYANMAR. THE INTENSITY OF TC 02B SHOULD INCREASE AT A CLIMOTOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO FORECASTED WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, PROXIMITY TO LAND AND WEAKENED OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN THE INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 28 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.// ** WTXS21 PGTW 270830 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/270821ZAPR2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6S 94.7E TO 11.3S 88.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUM- BERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 93.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 94.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 262359Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WEAKER LLCC WITH ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS CONTAINED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND INCREASED SURFACE INFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 280830Z.// ** WTXS21 PGTW 270830 *** ALERT ATCF MIL 91X XXX 060427060000 2006042706 -8.6 94.7 -11.3 88.4 170 -9.3 93.3 270830 0604270821 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 270821Z APR 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6S 94.7E TO 11.3S 88.4E WITH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 93.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 280830Z. // SH, 91, 2006042418, , BEST, 0, 93S, 969E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042500, , BEST, 0, 91S, 967E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042506, , BEST, 0, 89S, 965E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042512, , BEST, 0, 88S, 962E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042518, , BEST, 0, 87S, 960E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042600, , BEST, 0, 86S, 958E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042606, , BEST, 0, 85S, 956E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042612, , BEST, 0, 84S, 953E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042618, , BEST, 0, 84S, 948E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, SH, 91, 2006042700, , BEST, 0, 86S, 940E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, SH, 91, 2006042706, , BEST, 0, 93S, 933E, 30, 1000, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 210, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTIN01 DEMS 270900 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2006 04 27 0900 UTC 27 APRIL 2006 PART-I :-STORM WARNING :THE CYCLONIC STORM (MALA) OVER SOUTH EAST BAY MOVED NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS AND FURTHER INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LIES CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 27TH WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT.12.5 DEG.N AND LONG.90.5 DEG.E ABOUT 250 KMS WNW OF PBL (.) THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NNE-LY DIRECTION TOWARDS ARAKAN COAST(.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII(N)(.) PART-III:- FORECAST ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N WEST OF 80 DEG E. I)WIND:-NW/W 15/20 KTS(.)EAST OF 67 DEG:NW/W 15/20 KTS(.) WEST OF 67 DEG:MAINLY NE 15/20 II)WEATHER:- FAIR(.) III)VISIBILITY:- GOOD (.) IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE (.) ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF 10 DEG.N. I)WIND:-ANTICYCLONIC 10/15 KTS AROUND THE AXIS OF LAT.13 DEG.N (.) II)WEATHER:- FAIR (.) III)VISIBILITY:- GOOD (.) IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE (.) BOB-A3-BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 14 DEG.N.EAST OF 80 DEG E. I)WIND:W/SW 30/35 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 45/50 AROUND THE CENTRE OF LAT. 12.5 DEG.N AND LONG 90.5 DEG.E (.) II)WEATHER:- FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RA/TS (.) IV)STATE OF SEA:- HIGH (.) BOB-A4-BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF 14 DEG.N. I)WIND:-E/SE 30/35 KTS BEC SW TO THE N OF 16 DEG.N (.) II)WEATHER:- WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN(.) IV)STATE OF SEA:- VERY ROUGH (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT