** WTAU03 ADRM 260754 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:08S133E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0730 UTC 26 APRIL 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. FINAL GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0600 UTC WEAKENING TROPICAL LOW [EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE MONICA] ESTIMATED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF 13.6 S 129.4 E SLOW MOVING. CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE. REMARKS NO FURTHER WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED UNLESS THE SITUATION CHANGES DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTAU03 ADRM 260754 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:08S133E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0730 UTC 26 APRIL 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. FINAL GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0600 UTC WEAKENING TROPICAL LOW [EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE MONICA] ESTIMATED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF 13.6 S 129.4 E SLOW MOVING. CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE. REMARKS NO FURTHER WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED UNLESS THE SITUATION CHANGES DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTIO31 PGTW 260900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MALA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 10.7N 90.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 90.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 11.1N 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 11.8N 91.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 12.6N 92.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 13.6N 92.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 90.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (MALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHILE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02B REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TRACK OF TC 02B HAS BEEN HIGHLY ERRATIC OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA WILL BUILD NEAR TAU 24 AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD. AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH CONSTRAINED SURFACE INFLOW CREATED BY THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 260900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MALA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 10.7N 90.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 90.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 11.1N 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 11.8N 91.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 12.6N 92.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 13.6N 92.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 90.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (MALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHILE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02B REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TRACK OF TC 02B HAS BEEN HIGHLY ERRATIC OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA WILL BUILD NEAR TAU 24 AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD. AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH CONSTRAINED SURFACE INFLOW CREATED BY THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//