** WTIN20 DEMS 240632 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24-04-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND AJOINING SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA.IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 12.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTAU03 ADRM 240734 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:2:24:12S134E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0730 UTC 24 APRIL 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0600 UTC SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MONICA ESTIMATED WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.7 S 134.4 E MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. CENTRAL PRESSURE 915 HPA. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST SUSTAINED WINDS TO 135 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. WINDS ABOVE 64 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS. WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL. WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL. 1800 UTC 24 APR: CENTRE WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.0 S 132.6 E. 935 HPA. WINDS TO 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 0600 UTC 25 APR: CENTRE WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.6 S 131.0 E. 950 HPA. WINDS TO 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTAU03 ADRM 240734 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:2:24:12S134E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0730 UTC 24 APRIL 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0600 UTC SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MONICA ESTIMATED WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF 11.7 S 134.4 E MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. CENTRAL PRESSURE 915 HPA. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST SUSTAINED WINDS TO 135 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. WINDS ABOVE 64 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS. WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL. WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL. 1800 UTC 24 APR: CENTRE WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.0 S 132.6 E. 935 HPA. WINDS TO 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 0600 UTC 25 APR: CENTRE WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES OF 12.6 S 131.0 E. 950 HPA. WINDS TO 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTXS31 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (MONICA) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 11.7S 134.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 134.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 12.3S 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 13.0S 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 14.0S 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 15.2S 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 134.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (MONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE STORM WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR SHORT- WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INFLUENCE OF LAND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY PAST TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CURVE POLEWARD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE THE TROUGH WILL HAVE ON THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//