** WTSR20 WSSS 191800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTAU03 ADRM 200152 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:2:24:14S142E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0100 UTC 20 APRIL 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0000 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE MONICA ESTIMATED WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF 13.6 S 141.5 E MOVING WESTNORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HPA. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST SUSTAINED WINDS TO 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. SEAS AND SWELL RISING VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL. WINDS INCREASING ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL. WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL. 1200 UTC 20 APR: CENTRE WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 13.5 S 140.4 E. 970 HPA. WINDS TO 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 0000 UTC 21 APR: CENTRE WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF 13.2 S 139.6 E. 955 HPA. WINDS TO 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTAU03 ADRM 200152 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:2:24:14S142E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0100 UTC 20 APRIL 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0000 UTC TROPICAL CYCLONE MONICA ESTIMATED WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF 13.6 S 141.5 E MOVING WESTNORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HPA. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST SUSTAINED WINDS TO 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. SEAS AND SWELL RISING VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL. WINDS INCREASING ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL. WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE SWELL. 1200 UTC 20 APR: CENTRE WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 13.5 S 140.4 E. 970 HPA. WINDS TO 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 0000 UTC 21 APR: CENTRE WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF 13.2 S 139.6 E. 955 HPA. WINDS TO 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTPS31 PGTW 200300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (MONICA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 141.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 141.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 13.8S 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 13.7S 139.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 13.3S 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 12.6S 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 141.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (MONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE PASSING OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AXIS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 23P IS CAUSING THE STEERING RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA TO BUILD IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC 23P MOVES OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS SURFACE INFLOW IMPROVES AND RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 200534 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.04.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 18.7S 180.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.04.2006 18.7S 180.0W WEAK 12UTC 20.04.2006 19.4S 179.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.04.2006 20.0S 178.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.04.2006 21.5S 177.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.04.2006 22.8S 178.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.04.2006 22.4S 179.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.04.2006 23.5S 179.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.04.2006 22.4S 179.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.04.2006 23.8S 179.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.04.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 16.3S 158.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.04.2006 16.3S 158.1W WEAK 12UTC 21.04.2006 16.7S 164.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.04.2006 17.4S 166.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.04.2006 17.5S 166.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.04.2006 17.7S 166.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.04.2006 19.9S 164.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.04.2006 19.1S 164.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.04.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 200534