** WTPS21 PGTW 162030 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/162021APR2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S 150.9E TO 13.1S 148.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 161800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 150.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S
151.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN CORAL
SEA. THIS RIDGE WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 172030Z.//