** WTIO21 FMEE 161204 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 16/04/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 019/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 16/04/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 13 (EX-ELIA) 1000 HPA POSITION: 17.8S / 82.7E (DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 17/04/2006 A 00 UTC: 19.0S / 81.4E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, SE DISSIPANT. A 24H POUR LE 17/04/2006 A 12 UTC: 20.5S / 80.0E, DISSIPE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'AFFAIBLIT RAPIDEMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FORTEMENT CISAILLE DE NORD-OUEST, ET DEVRAIT SE DISSIPER DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. CE BULLETIN EST LE DERNIER EMIS SUR CE SYSTEME. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 161204 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 019/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 (EX-ELIA) 1000 HPA POSITION: 17.8S / 82.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/17 AT 00 UTC: 19.0S / 81.4E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING. 24H, VALID 2006/04/17 AT 12 UTC: 20.5S / 80.0E, DISSIPATED. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 161205 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 (EX-ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/16 AT 1200 UTC : 17.8S / 82.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 1.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/17 00 UTC: 19.0S/81.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 24H: 2006/04/17 12 UTC: 20.5S/80.0E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+, CI=2.0 THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY WEAKENING; THE LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE VERY RESIDUAL CONVECTION, DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. EX-ELIA SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. . ** WTSR20 WSSS 160600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 161205 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 (EX-ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/16 AT 1200 UTC : 17.8S / 82.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 1.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/17 00 UTC: 19.0S/81.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 24H: 2006/04/17 12 UTC: 20.5S/80.0E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+, CI=2.0 THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY WEAKENING; THE LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE VERY RESIDUAL CONVECTION, DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. EX-ELIA SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 161204 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 019/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 (EX-ELIA) 1000 HPA POSITION: 17.8S / 82.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/17 AT 00 UTC: 19.0S / 81.4E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING. 24H, VALID 2006/04/17 AT 12 UTC: 20.5S / 80.0E, DISSIPATED. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.=