** WTIO30 FMEE 160607 ***
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 18/13/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13  (EX-ELIA)

2.A POSITION 2006/04/16 AT 0600 UTC :
17.4S / 83.4E 
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /W  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT   NE:       SE: 100   SO: 100   NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 19.0S/82.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/04/17 06 UTC: 20.8S/81.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
36H: 2006/04/17 18 UTC: 22.5S/80.5E DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0, CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY WEAKENING; THE LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF
THE VERY RESIDUAL CONVECTION, DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
 WINDSHEAR.
EX-ELIA SHOULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


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** WTIO21 FMEE 160607 ***
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 16/04/2006 A 0600 UTC.
NUMERO: 018/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVERTISSEMENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 16/04/2006 A 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENE:         PERTURBATION TROPICALE 13 (EX-ELIA) 999 HPA 
POSITION:           17.4S / 83.4E 
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST) A
0600 UTC
DEPLACEMENT:       SUD-OUEST 10 KT
 
ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE,  S'ETENDANT JUSQU
'A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.

CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON
DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET
MER FORTE A TRES FORTE JUSQU'A 70 NM DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.


PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 16/04/2006 A 18 UTC: 
19.0S / 82.0E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE.
A 24H POUR LE 17/04/2006 A 06 UTC: 
20.8S / 81.1E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, SE DISSIPANT.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
LE SYSTEME S'AFFAIBLIT RAPIDEMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FORTEMENT
CISAILLE DE NORD-OUEST, ET DEVRAIT SE DISSIPER DANS LES PROCHAINES 36
HEURES.


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** WTIO20 FMEE 160607 ***
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/04/2006 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY    16/04/2006 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 (EX-ELIA) 999 HPA 
POSITION:           17.4S / 83.4E 
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER  EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 18 UTC: 
19.0S / 82.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2006/04/17 AT 06 UTC: 
20.8S / 81.1E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 


.