** WTIO20 FMEE 151806 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 994 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9S / 84.9E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 06 UTC: 16.7S / 83.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 18 UTC: 17.5S / 82.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE LLCC IS EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 151806 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 994 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9S / 84.9E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 06 UTC: 16.7S / 83.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 18 UTC: 17.5S / 82.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE LLCC IS EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 151806 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 15/04/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 016/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 15/04/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (ELIA) 994 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9S / 84.9E (QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT JUSQU' A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35KT ET TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 50 NM DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 110MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 16/04/2006 A 06 UTC: 16.7S / 83.8E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 16/04/2006 A 18 UTC: 17.5S / 82.9E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'AFFAIBLIT SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE CONTRAINTE CROISSANTE DE NORD-OUEST ET IL DEVRAIT SE DISSIPER AU DELA DE 48 HEURES. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES EST EXPOSEE AU NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 151808 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/15 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9S / 84.9E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 200 SO: 080 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 16.7S/83.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 17.5S/82.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/04/17 06 UTC: 18.3S/82.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/04/17 18 UTC: 19.2S/81.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/04/18 06 UTC: 20.2S/80.5E DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/04/18 18 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=2.5+ "ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER WATER HAS IT GOES ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 151808 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/15 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9S / 84.9E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 200 SO: 080 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 16.7S/83.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 17.5S/82.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/04/17 06 UTC: 18.3S/82.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/04/17 18 UTC: 19.2S/81.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/04/18 06 UTC: 20.2S/80.5E DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/04/18 18 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=2.5+ "ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER WATER HAS IT GOES ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS. .