** WTSR20 WSSS 150600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 151207 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 015/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 994 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 85.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 00 UTC: 16.3S / 84.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 12 UTC: 16.9S / 83.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND IT SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LLCC IS EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 151207 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 015/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 994 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 85.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 00 UTC: 16.3S / 84.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 12 UTC: 16.9S / 83.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND IT SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LLCC IS EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 151207 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 15/04/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 015/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 15/04/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (ELIA) 994 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6S / 85.2E (QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT JUSQU' A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35KT ET TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 50 NM DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET JUSQU'A 120MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 16/04/2006 A 00 UTC: 16.3S / 84.3E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 16/04/2006 A 12 UTC: 16.9S / 83.3E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, SE DISSIPANT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'AFFAIBLIT SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE CONTRAINTE CROISSANTE DE NORD-OUEST ET IL DEVRAIT SE DISSIPER AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES EST EXPOSEE AU NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 151224 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/15 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 85.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 200 SO: 080 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 16.3S/84.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/04/16 12 UTC: 16.9S/83.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2006/04/17 00 UTC: 17.6S/82.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2006/04/17 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ "ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER WATER HAS IT GOES ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 151224 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/15 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 85.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 200 SO: 080 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 16.3S/84.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/04/16 12 UTC: 16.9S/83.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2006/04/17 00 UTC: 17.6S/82.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2006/04/17 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ "ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER WATER HAS IT GOES ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 151500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ELIA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 85.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 85.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.2S 84.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 85.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 22S IS DISSIPATING IN A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSE- LY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET.//