** WTIN20 DEMS 140616 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-04-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 12.5 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ** WTIN20 DEMS 150616 COR *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-04-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 12.5 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ** WTIO20 FMEE 150616 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/04/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/04/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 994 HPA POSITION: 15.0S / 86.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 100NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 18 UTC: 15.3S / 85.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DISSIPATING. 24H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 06 UTC: 15.6S / 83.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENIONG DUE TO EN INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE LLCC IS BECOMING EXPOSED NORTHWAT OF DEEP CONVECTION.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 150616 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/04/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/04/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 994 HPA POSITION: 15.0S / 86.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 100NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 18 UTC: 15.3S / 85.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DISSIPATING. 24H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 06 UTC: 15.6S / 83.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENIONG DUE TO EN INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE LLCC IS BECOMING EXPOSED NORTHWAT OF DEEP CONVECTION. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 150616 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 15/04/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 014/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 15/04/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (ELIA) 994 HPA POSITION: 15.0S / 86.2E (QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SIX DEGRES DEUX EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT JUSQU' A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35KT ET TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 50 NM DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET JUSQU'A 100MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 15/04/2006 A 18 UTC: 15.3S / 85.0E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, SE DISSIPANT. A 24H POUR LE 16/04/2006 A 06 UTC: 15.6S / 83.8E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, SE DISSIPANT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'AFFAIBLIT RAPIDEMENT SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE CONTRAINTE CROISSANTE DE NORD-OUEST. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES SE DEFORME ET DEVIENT EXPOSEE AU NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 150634 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/15 AT 0600 UTC : 15.0S / 86.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 200 SO: 080 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 15.3S/85.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 24H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 15.6S/83.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 15.6S/82.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER WATER. THE FORECASTED TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN NWP MODELS, MAIN OF THEM STILL MAKE IT TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS (ARPEGE-TROPIQUES, UKMO, NOGAPS), WILL ECMWF MAKE IT TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW, WHICH SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANT OVE R THIS SHEARED SYSTEM.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150634 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/15 AT 0600 UTC : 15.0S / 86.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 200 SO: 080 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 15.3S/85.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 24H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 15.6S/83.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 15.6S/82.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LLCC IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER WATER. THE FORECASTED TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN NWP MODELS, MAIN OF THEM STILL MAKE IT TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS (ARPEGE-TROPIQUES, UKMO, NOGAPS), WILL ECMWF MAKE IT TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW, WHICH SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANT OVE R THIS SHEARED SYSTEM. .