** WTSR20 WSSS 141800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 150016 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 990 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 86.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 12 UTC: 16.0S / 86.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 00 UTC: 17.6S / 84.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM "ELIA" IS RELOCATED TO THE WEST TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. "ELIA" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, WEAKENING GRADUALLY. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 150016 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 15/04/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 013/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 15/04/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (ELIA) 990 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1S / 86.8E (QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SIX DEGRES HUIT EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU' A 350 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/40KT ET TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 120 NM DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 15/04/2006 A 12 UTC: 16.0S / 86.0E, VENT MAX = 40 KT. A 24H POUR LE 16/04/2006 A 00 UTC: 17.6S / 84.8E, VENT MAX = 40 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME "ELIA" EST RELOCALISE PLUS A L'OUEST POUR TENIR COMPTE DES DERNIERES DONNEES DES SATELLITES MICRO-ONDES. LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT LOCALISES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. LE SYSTEME "ELIA" EST PREVU POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU SUD-SUD-OUEST EN FAIBLISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 150016 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 15/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 990 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 86.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 12 UTC: 16.0S / 86.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/04/16 AT 00 UTC: 17.6S / 84.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM "ELIA" IS RELOCATED TO THE WEST TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. "ELIA" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, WEAKENING GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150017 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/15 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 86.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/15 12 UTC: 16.0S/86.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 17.6S/84.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/04/16 12 UTC: 19.6S/83.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/04/17 00 UTC: 21.7S/83.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/04/17 12 UTC: 23.6S/82.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/04/18 00 UTC: 24.8S/80.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 ; CI=3.0 THE CENTRE OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS RELOCATED TO THE WEST TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THE RECENT MICRO-WAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY (AQUA 1935Z). "ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STEERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST, "ELIA" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT AND THUS TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 150017 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/15 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 86.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/15 12 UTC: 16.0S/86.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 17.6S/84.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/04/16 12 UTC: 19.6S/83.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/04/17 00 UTC: 21.7S/83.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/04/17 12 UTC: 23.6S/82.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/04/18 00 UTC: 24.8S/80.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 ; CI=3.0 THE CENTRE OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS RELOCATED TO THE WEST TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THE RECENT MICRO-WAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY (AQUA 1935Z). "ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STEERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST, "ELIA" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT AND THUS TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 150300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ELIA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 86.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 86.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.4S 85.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.7S 84.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 86.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST AND ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL BE SHEARED FROM THE LLCC AND THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z.//