** WTIO20 FMEE 141806 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 987 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 87.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 06 UTC: 15.7S / 87.1E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 18 UTC: 17.1S / 86.1E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ELIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, WEAKENING GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 141807 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/14 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 87.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/15 06 UTC: 15.7S/87.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 17.1S/86.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 19.0S/84.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 21.2S/84.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/04/17 06 UTC: 23.1S/83.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/04/17 18 UTC: 25.0S/84.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 ; CI=3.5- "ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE IS LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. STEERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST, "ELIA" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY CONSTRAINT AND THUS TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 141806 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 987 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 87.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 06 UTC: 15.7S / 87.1E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 18 UTC: 17.1S / 86.1E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ELIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, WEAKENING GRADUALLY. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 141806 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 14/04/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 012/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 14/04/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (ELIA) 987 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9S / 87.9E (QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU' A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/45KT ET TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 110 NM DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 15/04/2006 A 06 UTC: 15.7S / 87.1E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 15/04/2006 A 18 UTC: 17.1S / 86.1E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT LOCALISES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. LE SYSTEME ELIA EST PREVU POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU SUD-SUD-OUEST EN FAIBLISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 141807 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/14 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 87.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/15 06 UTC: 15.7S/87.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 17.1S/86.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 19.0S/84.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 21.2S/84.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/04/17 06 UTC: 23.1S/83.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/04/17 18 UTC: 25.0S/84.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 ; CI=3.5- "ELIA" IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE IS LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. STEERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST, "ELIA" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASING NORTH WESTERLY CONSTRAINT AND THUS TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.=