** WTSR20 WSSS 140600 ***
NO STORM WARNING=




** WTIO20 FMEE 141213 ***
SECURITE

GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/04/2006

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 011/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



GALE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY    14/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC.



PHENOMENON:        MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 987 HPA

POSITION:          WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5S / 88.0E

(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO

DEGREES  EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-WEST 6 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP

TO

150 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS.



GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND  VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 110 NM IN THE

SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 00 UTC:

15.5S / 86.7E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

24H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 12 UTC:

16.5S / 85.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE

GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

ELIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, WITHOUT

INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEN WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS.=




** WTIO21 FMEE 141213 ***
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 14/04/2006 A 1200 UTC.
NUMERO: 011/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS DE COUP DE VENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 14/04/2006 A 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENE:         TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (ELIA) 987 HPA 
POSITION:          DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.5S / 88.0E 
(QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-HUIT DEGRES ZERO  EST) A 1200
UTC
DEPLACEMENT:       SUD-OUEST 6 KT
 
ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'
A 150 MN DANS LES QUADRANTS NORD-OUEST ET SUD-EST.

COUP DE VENT 35/45KT ET TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR
 DU CENTRE.
GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR
DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 110 NM DU CENTRE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.


PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 15/04/2006 A 00 UTC: 
15.5S / 86.7E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE.
A 24H POUR LE 15/04/2006 A 12 UTC: 
16.5S / 85.8E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT LOCALISES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN RAISON
 DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES.
ELIA EST PREVU POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU
SUD-OUEST SANS S'INTENSIFIER SIGNIFICATIVEMENT PUIS S'AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT
 AU DELA DE 48 HEURES.


.




** WTIO20 FMEE 141213 ***
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/04/2006 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY    14/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 987 HPA 
POSITION:          WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5S / 88.0E 
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES  EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND  VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 00 UTC: 
15.5S / 86.7E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 12 UTC: 
16.5S / 85.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE
GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ELIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, WITHOUT
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEN WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS.


.




** WTIO30 FMEE 141221 ***


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 11/13/20052006

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13  (ELIA)



2.A POSITION 2006/04/14 AT 1200 UTC :

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5S / 88.0E

(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO

DEGREES EAST)



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.5 /W  0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 987 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT



6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

30 KT       NE: 080   SE: 200   SO: 200   NO: 080



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2006/04/15 00 UTC: 15.5S/86.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.

STORM

.

24H: 2006/04/15 12 UTC: 16.5S/85.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.

STORM

.

36H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 17.5S/85.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.

STORM

.

48H: 2006/04/16 12 UTC: 18.7S/84.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.

STORM

.

60H: 2006/04/17 00 UTC: 19.8S/83.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.

DEPRESSION.

72H: 2006/04/17 12 UTC: 21.0S/82.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING

EXTRATROPICAL.



2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:

T=3.0+ AND CI=3.5-

THE SYSTEM WAS ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN LAST NIGHT BUT SEEMS

TO

BECOME IN CDO PATTERN ORGANIZATION NOW WITH A LLCC LIGHTLY DEPHASED

ON

THE NORTHWESTERN MAIN CLUSTER'S EDGE.

SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE CONSTRAINTED BY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL

WINDSHEAR

 (AT 10KT, ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS)

POLARWARDS DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN EFFICIENT

UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL; BUT THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE IS WEAK,

THE

 MONSOON FLOW IS NOT ESTABLISHED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL

FOR

AN INTENSIFICATION IS THUS

LIMITED.

THE LLCC IS ASYMMETRIC, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH

PRESSURES.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS

DURING

THE NEXT 72 HOURS, IN RELATIONSHIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-LEVEL

EXISTING

EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN TOWARDS A TROUGH SHIPPING EASTWARDS IN

THE

SOUTH.

ECMWF NWP MODEL FORECASTS AN ALTERNATIVE WESTWARDS SCENARIO WHICH

WOULD

BE POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED AND THUS BECOME

UNDER

THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LAYER STEERING AND THE TRADE WINDS FLOW.

SOUTH OF 18S AND EAST OF 80E, ENERGETICS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS AND LESS

FAVOURABLE DUE TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE LESS THAN 26.0 C.=




** WTIO30 FMEE 141221 ***
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 11/13/20052006
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13  (ELIA)

2.A POSITION 2006/04/14 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5S / 88.0E 
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.5 /W  0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 080   SE: 200   SO: 200   NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/04/15 00 UTC: 15.5S/86.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2006/04/15 12 UTC: 16.5S/85.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 17.5S/85.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2006/04/16 12 UTC: 18.7S/84.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2006/04/17 00 UTC: 19.8S/83.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2006/04/17 12 UTC: 21.0S/82.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0+ AND CI=3.5-
THE SYSTEM WAS ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN LAST NIGHT BUT SEEMS TO
BECOME IN CDO PATTERN ORGANIZATION NOW WITH A LLCC LIGHTLY DEPHASED ON
THE NORTHWESTERN MAIN CLUSTER'S EDGE.
SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE CONSTRAINTED BY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
 (AT 10KT, ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS)
POLARWARDS DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN EFFICIENT
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL; BUT THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE IS WEAK, THE
 MONSOON FLOW IS NOT ESTABLISHED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN INTENSIFICATION IS THUS
LIMITED.
THE LLCC IS ASYMMETRIC, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS, IN RELATIONSHIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-LEVEL EXISTING
EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN TOWARDS A TROUGH SHIPPING EASTWARDS IN THE
SOUTH.
ECMWF NWP MODEL FORECASTS AN ALTERNATIVE WESTWARDS SCENARIO WHICH WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED AND THUS BECOME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LAYER STEERING AND THE TRADE WINDS FLOW.
SOUTH OF 18S AND EAST OF 80E, ENERGETICS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS AND LESS
FAVOURABLE DUE TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE LESS THAN 26.0 C.


.