** WTIO20 FMEE 140607 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/04/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/04/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 987 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 88.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 160 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/14 AT 18 UTC: 15.3S / 87.0E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 06 UTC: 16.3S / 86.0E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ELIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING LIGHTLY.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 140607 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/04/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/04/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 987 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 88.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 160 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/14 AT 18 UTC: 15.3S / 87.0E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 06 UTC: 16.3S / 86.0E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ELIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING LIGHTLY. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 140607 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 14/04/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 010/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 14/04/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (ELIA) 987 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.4S / 88.2E (QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 160 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45KT ET TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 110 NM DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 14/04/2006 A 18 UTC: 15.3S / 87.0E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 15/04/2006 A 06 UTC: 16.3S / 86.0E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT LOCALISES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. ELIA EST PREVU POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU SUD-OUEST EN S'INTENSIFIANT LEGEREMENT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 140609 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/14 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 88.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/14 18 UTC: 15.3S/87.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/04/15 06 UTC: 16.3S/86.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 17.3S/85.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 18.4S/84.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 19.6S/83.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/04/17 06 UTC: 20.5S/83.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5- SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED IN A CURVED BAND PATTERN DURING LAST NIGHT AND HAS INTENSIFYED (CF TRMM AT 0017UTC AND SSMIS AT 0142UTC MICROWAVES IMAGERY). THE UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (DUE TO A POORLY ESTABLISHED MOONSON FLOW). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, IN RELATIONSHIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-LEVEL EXISTING EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SOUTH OF 18S AND EAST OF 80E, ENERGETICS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE DUE TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE LESS THAN 26.0 C. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 140609 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/14 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 88.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/14 18 UTC: 15.3S/87.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/04/15 06 UTC: 16.3S/86.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 17.3S/85.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 18.4S/84.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 19.6S/83.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/04/17 06 UTC: 20.5S/83.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5- SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED IN A CURVED BAND PATTERN DURING LAST NIGHT AND HAS INTENSIFYED (CF TRMM AT 0017UTC AND SSMIS AT 0142UTC MICROWAVES IMAGERY). THE UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (DUE TO A POORLY ESTABLISHED MOONSON FLOW). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, IN RELATIONSHIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-LEVEL EXISTING EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SOUTH OF 18S AND EAST OF 80E, ENERGETICS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE DUE TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE LESS THAN 26.0 C.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 140616 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-04-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH WEST AND SOUTH EAST BAT OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 11.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER