** WTIO20 FMEE 140004 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 88.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/14 AT 12 UTC: 13.8S / 87.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 00 UTC: 14.2S / 86.4E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ELIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING VERY GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 140004 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/14 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 88.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/14 12 UTC: 13.8S/87.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/04/15 00 UTC: 14.2S/86.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/04/15 12 UTC: 15.0S/85.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 16.0S/83.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/04/16 12 UTC: 17.2S/82.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/04/17 00 UTC: 19.0S/81.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (DUE TO A POORLY ESTABLISHED MOONSON FLOW). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE TRANSIENT TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTSR20 WSSS 131800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 140004 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/14 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 88.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/14 12 UTC: 13.8S/87.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/04/15 00 UTC: 14.2S/86.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/04/15 12 UTC: 15.0S/85.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 16.0S/83.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/04/16 12 UTC: 17.2S/82.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/04/17 00 UTC: 19.0S/81.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (DUE TO A POORLY ESTABLISHED MOONSON FLOW). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE TRANSIENT TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 140004 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 14/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 88.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/14 AT 12 UTC: 13.8S / 87.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/04/15 AT 00 UTC: 14.2S / 86.4E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ELIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING VERY GRADUALLY. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 140004 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 14/04/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 009/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 14/04/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (ELIA) 995 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.6S / 88.6E (TREIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-HUIT DEGRES SIX EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE PRES DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 30 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 60 NM DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 14/04/2006 A 12 UTC: 13.8S / 87.5E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 15/04/2006 A 00 UTC: 14.2S / 86.4E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT LOCALISES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. ELIA EST PREVU POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU SUD-OUEST EN S'INTENSIFIANT TRES PROGRESSIVEMENT. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 140300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (ELIA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 89.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 89.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.3S 87.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.2S 86.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.6S 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.8S 85.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 88.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (ELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN SPEED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT HAS MOD- ERATELY INCREASED IN ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DEEP- ENING AND MOVING EASTWARD, POLEWARD OF TC 22S. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGIN TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS, WHICH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.//