** WTIO20 FMEE 131805 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 13/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 89.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/14 AT 06 UTC: 13.3S / 88.7E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/04/14 AT 18 UTC: 13.4S / 87.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM ELIA GETS SLOWLY ORGANIZED, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ELIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 131805 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/13 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 89.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/14 06 UTC: 13.3S/88.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/04/14 18 UTC: 13.4S/87.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/04/15 06 UTC: 13.7S/86.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 14.3S/84.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 15.5S/83.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 17.0S/82.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5, CI=2.5+ ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (WINDSAT 1211Z AND SSMIS 1434Z ), THE CONVECTION HARDLY CONSOLIDATES AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (DUE TO A POORLY ESTABLISHED MOONSON FLOW ). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE TRANSIENT TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 131805 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/13/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 2.A POSITION 2006/04/13 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 89.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/14 06 UTC: 13.3S/88.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/04/14 18 UTC: 13.4S/87.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/04/15 06 UTC: 13.7S/86.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 14.3S/84.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/04/16 06 UTC: 15.5S/83.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/04/16 18 UTC: 17.0S/82.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5, CI=2.5+ ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (WINDSAT 1211Z AND SSMIS 1434Z ), THE CONVECTION HARDLY CONSOLIDATES AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (DUE TO A POORLY ESTABLISHED MOONSON FLOW ). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BEFORE VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE TRANSIENT TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 131805 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 13/04/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 008/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 13/04/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (ELIA) 995 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2S / 89.3E (TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 2 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 200 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE PRES DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 30 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 60 NM DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 14/04/2006 A 06 UTC: 13.3S / 88.7E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 14/04/2006 A 18 UTC: 13.4S / 87.7E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME ELIA S'ORGANISE LENTEMENT, LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT LOCALISES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. ELIA EST PREVU POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU SUD-OUEST EN S'INTENSIFIANT PROGRESSIVEMENT. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 131805 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 13/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/04/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (ELIA) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 89.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/14 AT 06 UTC: 13.3S / 88.7E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/04/14 AT 18 UTC: 13.4S / 87.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM ELIA GETS SLOWLY ORGANIZED, STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ELIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY. .