** WTSR20 WSSS 121800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 130046 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 13/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 90.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT, REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 25NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/13 AT 12 UTC: 13.4S / 89.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/04/14 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 88.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO 1946Z MICRO-WAVE AQUA DATA, WICH SHOWS THAT THE CENTRE IS STILL LOCATED NORTH OF DEEP CONVECTION AND HAS STOPPPED OVER THE 90 EAST MERIDIAN DURING LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 130046 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 13/04/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 005/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 13/04/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 13 998 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.1S / 90.0E (TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE, ATTEIGNANT LE GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 25MN AUOUR DU CENTRE, POUVANT S'ETENDRE JUSQU'A 50 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 13/04/2006 A 12 UTC: 13.4S / 89.0E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 14/04/2006 A 00 UTC: 13.6S / 88.1E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: POSITION ESTIMEE AVEC L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE AQUA DE 19H46, QUI MONTRE QUE LE CENTRE DE BASSE-COUCHE SE SITUE ENCORE AU NORD DE LA CONVECTION ET S'EST ARRETE SUR LE 90EME MERIDIEN EST AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REPRENDRE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST . ** WTIO20 FMEE 130046 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 13/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 13/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 90.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT, REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 25NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/13 AT 12 UTC: 13.4S / 89.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/04/14 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 88.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO 1946Z MICRO-WAVE AQUA DATA, WICH SHOWS THAT THE CENTRE IS STILL LOCATED NORTH OF DEEP CONVECTION AND HAS STOPPPED OVER THE 90 EAST MERIDIAN DURING LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 130050 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 2.A POSITION 2006/04/13 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 90.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/13 12 UTC: 13.4S/89.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/04/14 00 UTC: 13.6S/88.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/04/14 12 UTC: 13.9S/87.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/04/15 00 UTC: 14.2S/86.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/04/15 12 UTC: 14.5S/85.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 14.8S/84.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO 1946Z MICRO-WAVE AQUA DATA, WICH SHOWS THAT THE CENTRE IS STILL LOCATED NORTH OF DEEP CONVECTION AND HAS STOPPPED OVER THE 90 EAST MERIDIAN DURING LAST HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RATHER FAVORABLE, BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK, MAINLY DUE TO A BADLY DEFINED MOONSON FLOW IN THE NORTHERN PART .. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 130050 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 2.A POSITION 2006/04/13 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 90.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/13 12 UTC: 13.4S/89.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/04/14 00 UTC: 13.6S/88.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/04/14 12 UTC: 13.9S/87.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/04/15 00 UTC: 14.2S/86.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/04/15 12 UTC: 14.5S/85.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/04/16 00 UTC: 14.8S/84.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO 1946Z MICRO-WAVE AQUA DATA, WICH SHOWS THAT THE CENTRE IS STILL LOCATED NORTH OF DEEP CONVECTION AND HAS STOPPPED OVER THE 90 EAST MERIDIAN DURING LAST HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RATHER FAVORABLE, BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK, MAINLY DUE TO A BADLY DEFINED MOONSON FLOW IN THE NORTHERN PART .= ** WTXS31 PGTW 130300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 89.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 89.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.0S 89.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.4S 88.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.0S 87.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 16.0S 87.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 89.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 22S TRACK SPEED HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS IT MOVED INTO THE RIDGE AXIS. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z. // ** WTIN20 DEMS 130550 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-04-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 11.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.)