** WTSR20 WSSS 061200 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 070010 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 07/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.8S / 86.0E (SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 350 NM RADIUS OF THE ESTMATED CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT, LOCALLY REACHING 25 KT AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/07 AT 12 UTC: 6.7S / 86.8E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/04/08 AT 00 UTC: 6.8S / 87.9E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD CLUSTERS ARE STILL SCATTERED AND FLUCTUATING. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 070010 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 07/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.8S / 86.0E (SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 350 NM RADIUS OF THE ESTMATED CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT, LOCALLY REACHING 25 KT AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/07 AT 12 UTC: 6.7S / 86.8E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/04/08 AT 00 UTC: 6.8S / 87.9E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD CLUSTERS ARE STILL SCATTERED AND FLUCTUATING. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 070010 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 07/04/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 003/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 07/04/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 13 1004 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 6.8S / 86.0E (SIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SIX DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 350 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ESTIME. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/20 KT, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25 KT ET MER AGITEE A LOCALEMENT FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ESTIME .. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 07/04/2006 A 12 UTC: 6.7S / 86.8E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 08/04/2006 A 00 UTC: 6.8S / 87.9E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME RESTE PEU ORGANISE, LE CENTRE DE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE EST DIFFICILE A LOCALISER PRECISEMENT. LES AMAS NUAGEUX ASSOCIES AU SYSTEME DEMEURENT FLUCTUANTS ET EPARS. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 070010 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2006/04/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.8S / 86.0E (SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/07 12 UTC: 06.7S/86.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/04/08 00 UTC: 06.8S/87.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/04/08 12 UTC: 07.2S/89.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/04/09 00 UTC: 08.0S/89.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/04/09 12 UTC: 08.5S/90.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/04/10 00 UTC: 08.9S/90.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 THE SYSTEME REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED : RECENT ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS VERY FLUCTUATING AND SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERG ENCE IS INSUFFICIENT. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 070010 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2006/04/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.8S / 86.0E (SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/07 12 UTC: 06.7S/86.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/04/08 00 UTC: 06.8S/87.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/04/08 12 UTC: 07.2S/89.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/04/09 00 UTC: 08.0S/89.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/04/09 12 UTC: 08.5S/90.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/04/10 00 UTC: 08.9S/90.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 THE SYSTEME REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED : RECENT ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS VERY FLUCTUATING AND SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERG ENCE IS INSUFFICIENT. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTAU05 APRF 070041 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:20S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0037UTC 7 APRIL 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 40 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal nine degrees South [19.9S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal nine degrees East [114.9E] Recent movement : south southwest at 6 knots. Maximum winds : 55 knots. Central pressure: 970hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 40 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to within 80 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Within 30 nautical miles of the centre extending to 50 nautical miles in southern quadrants: 45/55 knot winds with high to very high seas and moderate swell. Within 40 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to within 80 nautical miles in southern quadrants: Clockwise winds 30/45 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1200 UTC 07 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 21.0 South 114.7 East Central pressure 978 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 0000 UTC 08 April: Within 70 nautical miles of 22.2 South 114.4 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 07 April 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 070041 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:20S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0037UTC 7 APRIL 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 40 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal nine degrees South [19.9S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal nine degrees East [114.9E] Recent movement : south southwest at 6 knots. Maximum winds : 55 knots. Central pressure: 970hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 40 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to within 80 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Within 30 nautical miles of the centre extending to 50 nautical miles in southern quadrants: 45/55 knot winds with high to very high seas and moderate swell. Within 40 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to within 80 nautical miles in southern quadrants: Clockwise winds 30/45 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1200 UTC 07 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 21.0 South 114.7 East Central pressure 978 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 0000 UTC 08 April: Within 70 nautical miles of 22.2 South 114.4 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 07 April 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 070300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 20.4S 115.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 115.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 21.6S 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 22.7S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 115.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STORM SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.// ** WTSR20 WSSS 061800 CCA *** NO STORM WARNING=