** WTSR20 WSSS 060600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 061203 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4S / 85.0E (SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE ESTMATED CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT, LOCALLY REACHING 25 KT AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/07 AT 00 UTC: 7.1S / 84.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/04/07 AT 12 UTC: 6.5S / 84.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED AND ITS CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE. CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYTEM REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTSR20 WSSS 060600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO21 FMEE 061203 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 06/04/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 002/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 06/04/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 13 1004 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.4S / 85.0E (SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 250 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ESTIME S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 500 MN DANS LE SECTEUR EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/20 KT, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25 KT ET MER AGITEE A LOCALEMENT FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ESTIME .. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 07/04/2006 A 00 UTC: 7.1S / 84.1E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 07/04/2006 A 12 UTC: 6.5S / 84.6E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE ASSEZ ALLONGEE ET LE CENTRE EST DIFFICILE A LOCALISER PRECISEMENT. LES AMAS NUAGEUX ASSOCIES AU SYSTEME DEMEURENT ENCORE MAL ORGANISES, ET FLUCTUENT SPATIALEMENT. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS; . ** WTIO20 FMEE 061203 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/04/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4S / 85.0E (SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE ESTMATED CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT, LOCALLY REACHING 25 KT AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/07 AT 00 UTC: 7.1S / 84.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/04/07 AT 12 UTC: 6.5S / 84.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED AND ITS CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE. CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYTEM REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 061204 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2006/04/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4S / 85.0E (SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/07 00 UTC: 07.1S/84.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/04/07 12 UTC: 06.5S/84.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/04/08 00 UTC: 06.5S/85.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/04/08 12 UTC: 07.7S/86.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/04/09 00 UTC: 09.3S/87.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/04/09 12 UTC: 10.4S/87.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+ LAST NIGHT QUIKSCAT SWAT REVEALS AN ELONGATED CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS NEAR THE CENTER BUT REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND DISORGANIZED. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE. ACCORDING TO AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, THE MONSOON FLOW AND THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVOURABLE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS, AND FEW NWP MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW SIGNIFICANTLY. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 061204 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2006/04/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4S / 85.0E (SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/07 00 UTC: 07.1S/84.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/04/07 12 UTC: 06.5S/84.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/04/08 00 UTC: 06.5S/85.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/04/08 12 UTC: 07.7S/86.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/04/09 00 UTC: 09.3S/87.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/04/09 12 UTC: 10.4S/87.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+ LAST NIGHT QUIKSCAT SWAT REVEALS AN ELONGATED CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS NEAR THE CENTER BUT REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND DISORGANIZED. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE. ACCORDING TO AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, THE MONSOON FLOW AND THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVOURABLE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS, AND FEW NWP MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW SIGNIFICANTLY. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTAU05 APRF 061255 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:19S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1254UTC 6 APRIL 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 40 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal zero degrees South [19.0S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal two degrees East [115.2E] Recent movement : south southwest at 7 knots. Maximum winds : 50 knots. Central pressure: 978hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to within 120 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 40nm of the centre clockwise 40/50 knots, increasing to 45/60 knots by 2100 UTC 06 April, with high to very high seas and moderate swell. At 0000 UTC 07 April: Within 60 nautical miles of 20.1 South 114.6 East Central pressure 968 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. At 1200 UTC 07 April: Within 90 nautical miles of 21.1 South 114.1 East Central pressure 968 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 06 April 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 061255 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:19S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1254UTC 6 APRIL 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 40 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal zero degrees South [19.0S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal two degrees East [115.2E] Recent movement : south southwest at 7 knots. Maximum winds : 50 knots. Central pressure: 978hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to within 120 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 40nm of the centre clockwise 40/50 knots, increasing to 45/60 knots by 2100 UTC 06 April, with high to very high seas and moderate swell. At 0000 UTC 07 April: Within 60 nautical miles of 20.1 South 114.6 East Central pressure 968 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. At 1200 UTC 07 April: Within 90 nautical miles of 21.1 South 114.1 East Central pressure 968 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 06 April 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 061500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 115.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 115.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 20.5S 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 22.1S 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 23.9S 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 115.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SYSTEM CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT MULTIPLE MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS REVEAL THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NEARLY DUE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, A 061236Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS NOW SUPERIMPOSED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS BUT WILL THEN START TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND EXPERIENCES NORTH- WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//