** WTAU05 APRF 060652 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:18S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0650UTC 6 APRIL 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude eighteen decimal three degrees South [18.3S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal six degrees East [115.6E] Recent movement : south southwest at 6 knots. Maximum winds : 45 knots. Central pressure: 982hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 50 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to within 130 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/40 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds increasing to clockwise 45/55 knots within 40nm of the centre by 1800 UTC 6 April, with high seas and moderate swell. At 1800 UTC 07 April: Within 60 nautical miles of 19.3 South 115.5 East Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. At 0600 UTC 07 April: Within 90 nautical miles of 20.3 South 115.5 East Central pressure 978 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 06 April 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 060652 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:18S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0650UTC 6 APRIL 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude eighteen decimal three degrees South [18.3S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal six degrees East [115.6E] Recent movement : south southwest at 6 knots. Maximum winds : 45 knots. Central pressure: 982hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 50 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to within 130 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/40 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds increasing to clockwise 45/55 knots within 40nm of the centre by 1800 UTC 6 April, with high seas and moderate swell. At 1800 UTC 07 April: Within 60 nautical miles of 19.3 South 115.5 East Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. At 0600 UTC 07 April: Within 90 nautical miles of 20.3 South 115.5 East Central pressure 978 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 06 April 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTIN20 DEMS 060650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-04-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) NO CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEM (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 10.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTXS31 PGTW 060900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 18.5S 115.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 115.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 19.7S 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 20.8S 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 21.9S 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 23.5S 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 26.4S 116.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 115.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DENSE CONVECTION. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, THE DEVELOP- MENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS BEFORE CAUSING A DETRIMENTAL EFFECT ON THE SYSTEM. WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING DUE SOUTH OF TC 21S HAS CAUSED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AN ADVANCING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ERODE THIS RIDGE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK NEARLY DUE SOUTH AFTER TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//