** WTIO20 FMEE 060001 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.5S / 87.5E (SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE ESTMATED CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT, LOCALLY REACHING 25 KT AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/06 AT 12 UTC: 7.3S / 88.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/04/07 AT 00 UTC: 7.4S / 88.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE ON IR IMAGERY. CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYTEM REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTSR20 WSSS 051800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 060001 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2006/04/06 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.5S / 87.5E (SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 2000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/06 12 UTC: 07.3S/88.0E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/04/07 00 UTC: 07.4S/88.5E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/04/07 12 UTC: 07.6S/88.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/04/08 00 UTC: 08.2S/89.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/04/08 12 UTC: 08.8S/89.4E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/04/09 00 UTC: 09.5S/89.1E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+ WINDSHEAR HAS OBVIOUSLY DECREASED OVER THE AREA, AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS HOWEVER POORLY ORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING. MOSOON AND TRADE WINDS FLOWS ARE RATHER WEAK. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FAIR. QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 1212z REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED CENTRE. NWP DISAGREE BY NOW WITH TRACK FORECAST AND ONLY DEEPEN THE LOW AT MEDIUM RANGE. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 060001 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 06/04/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 001/13 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 06/04/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 13 1004 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.5S / 87.5E (SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE 2 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 250 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ESTIME. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/20 KT, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25 KT ET MER AGITEE A LOCALEMENT FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ESTIME .. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 06/04/2006 A 12 UTC: 7.3S / 88.0E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 07/04/2006 A 00 UTC: 7.4S / 88.5E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES EST DIFFICILE A PRECISEMENT ESTIMER EN IMAGERIE IR. LES AMAS NUAGEUX ASSOCIES AU SYSTEME DEMEURENT ENCORE MAL ORGANISES, ET FLUCTUENT SPATIALEMENT. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS; . ** WTIO20 FMEE 060001 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/04/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.5S / 87.5E (SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE ESTMATED CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT, LOCALLY REACHING 25 KT AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/04/06 AT 12 UTC: 7.3S / 88.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/04/07 AT 00 UTC: 7.4S / 88.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE ON IR IMAGERY. CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYTEM REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 060001 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/13/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2006/04/06 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.5S / 87.5E (SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 2000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/04/06 12 UTC: 07.3S/88.0E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/04/07 00 UTC: 07.4S/88.5E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/04/07 12 UTC: 07.6S/88.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/04/08 00 UTC: 08.2S/89.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/04/08 12 UTC: 08.8S/89.4E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/04/09 00 UTC: 09.5S/89.1E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+ WINDSHEAR HAS OBVIOUSLY DECREASED OVER THE AREA, AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS HOWEVER POORLY ORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING. MOSOON AND TRADE WINDS FLOWS ARE RATHER WEAK. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FAIR. QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 1212Z REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED CENTRE. NWP DISAGREE BY NOW WITH TRACK FORECAST AND ONLY DEEPEN THE LOW AT MEDIUM RANGE. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTAU05 APRF 060051 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S116E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0039UTC 6 APRIL 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 40 nautical miles of Latitude seventeen decimal six degrees South [17.6S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal nine degrees East [115.9E] Recent movement : south southwest at 6 knots. Maximum winds : 40 knots. Central pressure: 986hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 50 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to within 130 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds increasing to 55 knots near the centre by 1800 UTC 6 April. At 1200 UTC 06 April: Within 60 nautical miles of 18.7 South 115.4 East Central pressure 978 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 0000 UTC 07 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 19.5 South 115.1 East Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 06 April 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 060051 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S116E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0039UTC 6 APRIL 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 40 nautical miles of Latitude seventeen decimal six degrees South [17.6S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal nine degrees East [115.9E] Recent movement : south southwest at 6 knots. Maximum winds : 40 knots. Central pressure: 986hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 50 nautical miles of the centre in northern quadrants, extending to within 130 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds increasing to 55 knots near the centre by 1800 UTC 6 April. At 1200 UTC 06 April: Within 60 nautical miles of 18.7 South 115.4 East Central pressure 978 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 0000 UTC 07 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 19.5 South 115.1 East Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 06 April 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 060300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 115.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 115.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 18.9S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 20.0S 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 21.2S 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 22.3S 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 24.4S 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 115.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EXPOSED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT MOVED AS FAR WESTWARD AS ANTICIPATED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM HAS NOT FILLED AS EXPECTED. THIS HAS CAUSED A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO REMAIN, RESULTING IN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST AS WELL, AS EVIDENCED BY THE EXPOSED LLCC. AN OUT- FLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED AS TS 21S MOVES CLOSER TO THE MIDLAT- ITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE BRIEF INTENSIFI- CATION BEFORE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LANDFALL COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE STORM PAST TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//